uplyme.com Forum Index uplyme.com
The Uplyme Debate
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Wet spell continues into November

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    uplyme.com Forum Index -> Wildlife and the Environment
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Rhodie



Joined: 14 Sep 2005

Posts: 425
Location: Rhode Hill, Uplyme

PostPosted: 06/11/05, 12:33    Post subject: Wet spell continues into November Reply with quote

No need to tell you that November has got off to a wet start with already 75mm (3”) having fallen at Rhode Hill in the first five days of the month, with 208mm (over 8’’) over the last 21 days.

Complete rainfall data for the last five years at Rhode Hill can be found at:
www.pcpages.com/uplyme/rain.html
_________________
It's later than you think
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
geoff



Joined: 17 Sep 2005

Posts: 704
Location: Lyme Rd, Uplyme

PostPosted: 07/11/05, 08:59    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is this normal for the time of year, or wetter Rhodie ?
Are they still predicting a cold, dry winter ?
Seems hard to believe at the moment ?

G.
_________________
it's never too late
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Rhodie



Joined: 14 Sep 2005

Posts: 425
Location: Rhode Hill, Uplyme

PostPosted: 08/11/05, 00:00    Post subject: Reply with quote

geoff wrote:
Is this normal for the time of year, or wetter Rhodie ?

I think that the only normal thing about our weather is that it is so unpredictable. In the years 1994 to 1999 my records show that October averaged out to be the 5th wettest month of the year behind January, December, November and February. For the years 2000 to 2004 October was on average the wettest month.

geoff also wrote:
Are they still predicting a cold, dry winter ? G.

I think that they are. What’s worrying if we have a severe winter is that could it be the first indication of the slowing down of the Gulf Stream. Some scientists believe this and eventually the complete stopping of the Gulf Stream is a possibility as a consequence of global warming Surprised
_________________
It's later than you think
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
Joss



Joined: 05 Oct 2005

Posts: 5
Location: Uplyme

PostPosted: 09/11/05, 09:02    Post subject: Northa Atlantic Oscillation Reply with quote

Rhodie
The Met Offices long-range forcast for a colder winter is (I think) based upon the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is a large scale-see sawing of airmass between the Azores high and the Icelandic low during the winter. Since 1980 this has been in positive mode with a strong high and deeper low causing strong storms to pass on a more northerly track, giving warm wet winters in Europe.
The NAO is now entering it's negative mode (the last major one was between the mid fifties to early seventies), with a weaker Azores high and Icelandic low. The storms now follow a more direct west/east path bringing colder air into northern Europe and a colder winter for us.

The Met Office's prediction is for winter temperatures for 2005/2006 to be colder than the winter of 1995/96 which was about 2 degs C colder than the last couple of winters. This is for southern England.
Check out http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/monthly_forecasts/headline.html
if you want the full stats.

Hope this makes sense!

Joss
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Rhodie



Joined: 14 Sep 2005

Posts: 425
Location: Rhode Hill, Uplyme

PostPosted: 11/11/05, 10:07    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for your detailed explanation of the NAO. Does this mean that this will not be a one off cold winter but that we can expect a run of colder winters for several years Question Sad
_________________
It's later than you think
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
Joss



Joined: 05 Oct 2005

Posts: 5
Location: Uplyme

PostPosted: 11/11/05, 13:04    Post subject: North Atlantic Oscillation Reply with quote

It seems each oscillation mode can last from several years up to ten to fifteen years, as with the recent positive mode oscillation which started around 1990.

Joss
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
michael



Joined: 14 Sep 2005

Posts: 13
Location: Lyme Rd, Uplyme

PostPosted: 12/11/05, 16:25    Post subject: wheather Reply with quote

as long as it snows its fine whith me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Laughing
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Rhodie



Joined: 14 Sep 2005

Posts: 425
Location: Rhode Hill, Uplyme

PostPosted: 13/11/05, 11:48    Post subject: Re: North Atlantic Oscillation Reply with quote

Joss wrote:
It seems each oscillation mode can last from several years up to ten to fifteen years, as with the recent positive mode oscillation which started around 1990.
Joss

Right Joss you obviously know what you are talking about.

Can you explain why during the 1990s when we had a run of warm summers we were told that they were probably an indication of global warming Question

Never once to my knowledge were we told of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and that we were in the positive mode of the oscillation. I am not a Bushite on man induced climate change but believe that the planet is facing catastrophic changes well beyond most people’s imagination, changes that have already been programmed into the system and which it is too late to do much about. I therefore see no reason whatsoever to spin a tale that the 1990’s weather was due entirely to global warming and not mention the NAO just to ram home this fact. Crying or Very sad

Now that the negative side is almost upon us, with arctic temperatures due this winter or the next, the Met Office has no other choice than to belatedly introduce us to the NAO. Mad
_________________
It's later than you think
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
Joss



Joined: 05 Oct 2005

Posts: 5
Location: Uplyme

PostPosted: 07/12/05, 19:28    Post subject: Reply with quote

All I can say Rhodie is that the NAO is relatively local, affecting mainly north west Europe. Global warming is a world wide problem.

Perhaps you saw todays news that the Anarctic Ozone Hole was bigger than its ever been this year. Mans influence on the atmosphere is affecting us now and will continue to do so for at least the next century as far as ozone depletion is concerned.


Joss
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    uplyme.com Forum Index -> Wildlife and the Environment All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group